At this moment market analysts are struggling with their year end analysis – what will the future look like? 2011 was a year of economic uncertainty and geopolitical disputes. Natural phenomenon such as Japan earth quake influenced energy market. Current state of global economy doesn’t make forecasting any easier.
Certain fundamentals remain in the market analysis year after year; supply, demand, economy, politics. Renewable fuels have brought a group of new topics to market intelligence as refiners develop new feedstock and production methods different from traditional oil refining, and climate change pushes to think new applications in every energy sector.
Renewable fuels market analysis requires understanding of consumption trends in fossil fuels, national legislation and fuel options – and this is simplification. However, the real thing is feedstock. Weather forecasts influence harvest and crop yield assumptions. Arable land availability and food vs. fuel debate are global topics often linked to biofuels, and consist of such factors as population growth and sustainability. New feedstock development requires algae professionals and botanists, where an analyst tries to figure out profitability and business potential of these not yet commercial scale products.
As renewable energy sector is growing, should energy analyst educators add “Fundamentals of Farming and Weather Forecasting” into their curriculum?
Happy and prosperous 2012 to everyone!